Feb. 16, 2026
WHAT: Rhode Island鈥檚 economic performance for December closed out 2025 in disappointing fashion that persisted all year long, with little compelling evidence refuting 溏心vlog免费B站 economist Leonard Lardaro鈥檚 conclusion that the state is in a recession. December鈥檚 Current Conditions Index value, at 33, dropped from the 42 seen in both October and November.
It is the eighth time in 2025 that the CCI fell below 50. Not once did any CCI monthly index improve relative to 2024, he also noted. Also, only four Of the CCI鈥檚 12 economic indicators, only four showed any improvement over last year, and Lardaro says the recent momentum Rhode Island saw seems to have dissipated at year鈥檚 end.
Lardaro says the state鈥檚 Labor Force dropped by 0.2%. Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor market indicator, fell by 1%, continuing a drop seen in November. US Consumer Sentiment again declined by a double-digit rate, down by 28.5% in December鈥攃ontinuing its ongoing monthly declines.
Government Employment also decreased by 0.5%, still negatively impacted by declines in federal government employment, Lardaro says. Private Service-Producing Employment, a proxy for service-sector employment, also fell in November by 0.2%.
Single-Use Permits, related to new-home construction, dropped by an estimated 19.3% in December, Lardaro says. Benefits Exhaustion, which indicates long-term unemployment, rose in December by 3.9%, continuing a concerning upward trend.
Retail Sales, a critical economic indicator that has been a strength through almost the entire post-pandemic period, improved by 4.9%. Total Manufacturing Hours continues to improve since May, growing by 4.5%鈥擬anufacturing Wage, though, remained unchanged.
New Claims, which is related to layoffs, followed a strong decline in November by falling 8.6% in December, its best run in a year, Lardaro says.
Lardaro notes a recession is defined based on the sustainability of overall economic activity, not levels. The only question that remains, says Lardaro, is how long Rhode Island鈥檚 economy remains in recession.
HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks.
WHEN: Feb. 16, 2026
FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563; James Bessette, 溏心vlog免费B站 Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-3520, james.bessette@uri.edu.
BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.